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In the months leading up to the February 2022 Russian invasion, cyber activity aimed at Ukraine saw significant spikes in volume. As the necessary logistics for kinetic warfare were increasingly amassed along the Ukraine border, the preparation for a parallel cyber war were also evident. Preemptive attacker activity, such as known Russian cyber actors taking over Botnet infrastructure, was observed throughout Europe. It is also likely that publicized breaches like that at Vodafone-Portugal were opening salvos or test-runs for future action against additional communications infrastructure in Ukraine. So why then was the success of Russian cyber-attacks as muted as their ground invasion? What lessons learned from the conflict can we apply to a potential future China-Taiwan conflict? How will recent changes in cyber insurance positions on nation state attributed attacks be impacted by what we have seen in Eastern Europe?
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